Friday, December 4, 2009

Your Weekend Primer: Championship Weekend Picks & Predictions

Three things we'll see before the final weekend of the regular season (yes, Army-Navy is next week, but it's more feel-good than relevant these days) is in the books.

1. The Heisman will be decided. Considering votes are due on Monday it would seem more than a little moronic to type that, but this is by far the most wide-open race in recent memory. Luckily, the most viable candidates are all in action today with Alabama's Mark Ingram, Texas' Colt McCoy, Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh and Florida's Tim Tebow. Whoever has the biggest game will likely emerge as the front runner.

(As an aside, no disrespect to Toby Gerhart, but no player from a four-loss team is going to win the Heisman in this day and age. It may not be fair, but Stanford's losses are Gerhart's losses).

Keep an eye on Tebow, most of all. It's been said that he killed his candidacy with a slow start, but with 16 TDs in the last five games and the adoration of the entire press-pass carrying media, he's not out until someone else is named the winner.

2. Julio Jones will be the most important player in the nation this week. All the focus in the SEC Championship Game will be on the elite defenses and Ingram and Tebow, as it should be. But the true key to the game is Jones, who is really the only difference between these teams. Both play great D, both ride the run, but Florida doesn't have a real deep threat, while Alabama has one of the nation's best receiving talents in Jones, who can kill the Gators in man coverage. If he forces Florida to add safety help, the Gators will have to try and stop the 'Bama running game without any additional men in the box. Getting Jones involved and making him a serious threat (like they did last year), could be the deciding factor in the road to the BCS title game.

3. Cincinnati will get a serious scare. It's expected to be cold and snowy in Pittsburgh for the Big East's defacto title game, which could effect the Bearcats' quick-strike, speed-oriented offense. But the real test lies in trying to stop Panthers ends Greg Romeus and Jabaal Sheard. Pitt has been able to rack up a nation's best 43 sacks without bringing in extra rushers, which is key to stopping the Bearcats because they won't create one-on-one situations, however, if Pike and Cincinnati force the Panthers to add to the pass rush with the speed of their scheme, it could turn this one into a rout.

Now, on to this week's picks:

No. 1 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama at Atlanta: Crimson Tide
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 21 Nebraska at Arlington, Texas: Longhorns
No. 5 Cincinnati at No. 14 Pittsburgh: Bearcats
No. 6 Boise State vs. New Mexico State: Broncos
No. 12 Georgia Tech vs. No. 25 Clemson at Tampa: Yellow Jackets
No. 18 Houston at East Carolina: Cougars
No. 19 California at Washington: Huskies
No. 20 Southern Cal vs. Arizona: Trojans
No. 24 West Virginia at Rutgers: Scarlet Knights

Last Week: 11-7
Overall: 177-54

Monday, November 30, 2009

Weis Is Out At Notre Dame ... So Who's Next?

A source close to the Notre Dame program has confirmed to The Señior that Charlie Weis is out after five tumultuous seasons in South Bend.

Let's face it, a start that looked like Weis would actually return the Irish to national prominence, the program has collapsed to a new low with 21 losses in three years, the worst stretch in team history.

The firing was inevitable and Weis will surely pick up the pieces and return to the NFL, where he still has three rings to show for his work as an offensive coordinator. But the bigger question is: who's next?

We'll surely hear names like Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Tony Dungy and Bill Cowher tossed around, but this isn't 1984. This job is no longer what it used to be, regardless if it's back by a mammoth NBC contract and the money-lined pockets of boosters. The candidates won't be no-names, but they won't be as earth-shattering as the program may want to believe. Here are three realistic candidates AD Jack Swarbrick should be on the phone with immediately.

1. Brian Kelly, Cincinnati. He should have been hired by Michigan instead of Rich Rodriguez, but Notre Dame can snag the hottest yet-to-have-a-big-job coach in the nation by giving the keys to Kelly, who has won at every level, including multiple national championships at FCS' Grand Valley State. Of course, the negative is that he won multiple national championships at FCS' Grand Valley State and not a school that the lay fan has ever heard of. Kelly has yet to prove that he can win against legit competition (sorry, Big East but it's true) and that may be his biggest downfall in the process. Plus, he's an offensive-minded coach and sources tell me they're eying a coach with a defensive pedigree.

2. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa. If they want defense, this is their guy. Ferentz's M.O. is strong defense and a running game. It's the exact opposite of Weis, but hey, Jim Tressel is going to his seventh BCS game with Ohio State using the same gameplan. The drawbacks are, well, weighty as far as pocketbooks go. Ferentz signed an extension before this season that runs through 2015, meaning after paying Weis nearly $18 million to leave town, Notre Dame would have to pay Iowa an exuberant amount just for the right to ink Ferentz to a sizable contract. Also, let's not discount the fact that Ferentz's son, James, is a redshirt freshman and he'd surely like to coach his son. He's appealing and fits the bill, but he may ultimately not be interested.

3. Jim Harbaugh, Stanford. He's shown that he can recruit and win with the same academic standards as Notre Dame and would have the name cache that could make a splash. But with Andrew Luck and Toby Gerhart returning, why would he want to leave now when he will be one of the favorites to win the Pac-10 next season. Plus, he seems much more suited for Michigan, a job that could be open next season should RichRod continue his run of ineptitude.

So who should Notre Dame hire? He may not fit what Swarbrick is supposedly seeking, but Kelly is truly the no-brainer on this list. Kelly, a Midwest guy, has shown that he can win without blue chip prospects and do it consistently. Plus, is there a more Irish sounding name out there?

The Señior's Top 25: Week 14

With little movement at the top of the charts, it's high time we start (albeit a little bit late) the defining storyline of the 2009 season. As much as we expected Florida, Alabama and Texas to be undefeated at this point, the fact that they're joined by an astounding three other unbeatens, this is a season that is ruled by six dominant teams.

It also sets up what could be a very, very interesting finish to the season. Based on BCS matchups, we could end up with three undefeated teams and since the AP doesn't have to follow suit with the BCS' ascension of the Nos. 1 and 2 winner to the title, voters could crown their own national champion. This is the season that it could happen, but of course we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Now, on to this week's rankings.

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Ohio State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Oregon State
11. Pitt
12. Georgia Tech
13. Iowa
14. Virginia Tech
15. LSU
16. BYU
17. Miami (Fla.)
18. Houston
19. USC
20. Cal
21. Nebraska
22. Stanford
23. Oklahoma State
24. West Virginia
25. Clemson

Sunday, November 29, 2009

Weekend Rewind: What We Learned

Lessons from a weekend that saw Nick Saban get slapped with a parental advisory sticker and more drama than the CW's 90210/Melrose Place Tuesday night block.

1. Love him or hate him, Tim Tebow's impact on the game is undeniable. I thought Tracy Wolfson wearing eye black in honor of Tebow's final game in the Swamp was a little much, but it does illustrate just how much the Florida quarterback has meant to the game. Regardless of whether you think he's a product of the media and the only system he could thrive in, it's hard to knock the fact that he already had two national championships, a Heisman, a slew of SEC records and could end his career with a third SEC and national title and a second Heisman. If we're all in agreement that the SEC is the premier conference in the game today, then isn't the defining player of that era hence the defining player of this entire era? I don't care if Tebow is a flop in the NFL or if he winds up as the most heralded UFL player of all-time; he's going down as one of the college game's all-time greats.

2. Boise State is headed to a BCS game. Oklahoma State has taken strides under Mike Gundy, but there's one thing it just can't overcome: Oklahoma. For the seventh straight season, the Cowboys lost to their in-state rivals 27-0 -- and this one hurt just a little bit more than normal considering that with a win, OSU would have all but locked up its first-ever BCS berth. If there was one season in which the Cowboys should have beaten the Sooners, it was this one. Battered OU is a shell of itself offensively after last season's record-breaking 51.1 points per game, but Oklahoma State could do nothing offensively and were shut out for the first time since 2005 against a Sooners defense that gave up 41 points to Texas Tech a week ago. Meanwhile, Karl Benson, the WAC commish is beaming. He hired a PR firm to boost Boise State's profile in the eyes of voters and now it appears he should have saved the money because with the loss we're going to have two non-BCS teams in the big-money bowls for the first time with TCU and the Broncos. It's only fitting that a year defined by mid-majors should find them rewarded with two seats at the season's Last Supper.

3. Alabama got just what it needed heading into the SEC Championship Game. While Florida was paving the way to Bobby Bowden's retirement party in a shellacking of Florida State, Crimson Tide QB Greg McElroy was leading a pressure-filled, our-season-is-on-the-line game-winning drive in the narrow win over Auburn -- and it was the best thing that could have happened to the junior passer. McElroy hasn't been as impressive as he was in the season-opening victory over Virginia Tech until that final drive as his arm keyed the win while Heisman contender Mark Ingram was on the bench. McElroy's confidence is up and so too should be his expectations in handling the pressure of Charlie Strong's Gator defense.