Friday, November 13, 2009

Your Weekend Primer: Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Three things we'll see before the weekend is in the books:

1. Brian Kelly will give us a glimpse of how he's going to ride that embarrassment of riches at QB in Cincinnati. In Zach Collaros and Tony Pike, it would appear Kelly has a dilemma as he tries to work Pike, who is is "is our guy" back into the starting role. But he shouldn't be deciding on one; he should be scaring the bejesus out of defensive coordinators by using both of them. Collaros is the runner, who utilizes play-action passes and roll outs, while Pike is the three-step drop and throw passer. They couldn't be more opposite, deadly and complimentary. How would teams even go about preparing for not one, but two different offenses? Kelly has a luxury that no other coach in the nation can boast and he should take full advantage of it beginning tonight vs. West Virginia.

2. Ohio State will punch a return ticket to a BCS bowl. If there's one thing Jim Tressel has succeeded at in his Buckeyes tenure, (outside of being fodder for Big Ten bashers for his inability to win big games) it's making BCS bowls a near-annual destination. In his seven years in Columbus, Ohio State has played in six BCS games. They'll make it seven in eight years with a dominant win over Iowa in Columbus. It's an amazing turn of events for the Hawkeyes, who a week ago were in the national conversation. Now they're in danger of playing in a second-tier bowl game if freshman James Vandenberg can't get it done in his first start. He faces a daunting challenge against a defense that's giving up less than 12 points per game. Since the loss to Purdue, the Buckeyes offense has been on fire, averaging 269.3 yards of offense per game and Terrelle Pryor is showing something that's been missing from his arsenal: sound decision-making. It seemed out of the question a few weeks ago, but Ohio State will clinch its fifth straight Big Ten crown Saturday.

3. TCU will all but punch its BCS ticket. The fourth-ranked Horned Frogs face their last foreseeable hurdle to a BCS bowl and a their last chance to convince the BCS powers that be that they deserve a shot at the national championship as they host No. 16 Utah. The Utes may own this matchup, winning all but one of thier meetings since TCU joined the Mountain West, but the Frogs have been a force of nature the past six weeks. Jerry Hughes and that third-ranked defense will feast on Utah freshman quarterback Jordan Wynn.

As for this week's picks:

No. 1 Florida at South Carolina: Gators
No. 2 Texas at Baylor: Longhorns
No. 3 Alabama at Mississippi State: Crimson Tide
No. 4 TCU vs. No. 16 Utah: Horned Frogs
No. 5 Cincinnati vs. West Virginia: Bearcats
No. 6 Boise State Next: vs. Idaho: Broncos
No. 7 Georgia Tech at Duke: Yellow Jackets
No. 8 Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame: Panthers
No. 9 LSU vs. Louisiana Tech: Tigers
No. 10 Ohio State vs. No. 15 Iowa: Buckeyes
No. 11 Southern Cal vs. No. 25 Stanford: Trojans
No. 12 Miami at North Carolina: Hurricanes
No. 13 Houston at UCF: Cougars
No. 14 Oregon vs. Arizona State: Ducks
No. 17 Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech: Cowboys
No. 18 Arizona at California: Wildcats
No. 19 Penn State vs. Indiana: Nittany Lions
No. 20 Virginia Tech at Maryland: Hokies
No. 21 Wisconsin vs. Michigan: Badgers
No. 22 BYU at New Mexico: Cougars
No. 24 Clemson at N.C. State: Tigers

Last Week: 17-4
Overall: 146-46

Monday, November 9, 2009

The Señior's Top 25: Week 11

Here come the Frogs! On the heels of yet another dominant win, this time 55-21 over San Diego State, TCU has outscored its last six opponents 237-56. While Florida, Alabama and Texas have had their moments, the Horned Frogs have week-in and week-out been the most impressive team with a stake in the national championship hunt.

Whether they get that chance remains to be seen, but the Frogs have shown themselves to be among the best teams in the country.
Now, on to this week's rankings:

1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Texas
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pitt
9. LSU
10. Ohio State
11. Oregon
12. USC
13. Houston
14. Utah
15. Iowa
16. Miami (Fla.)
17. Oklahoma State
18. Arizona
19. Penn State
20. Virginia Tech
21. Wisconsin
22. BYU
23. Clemson
24. Stanford
25. South Florida

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Saturday Rewind: What We Learned

Three things we learned from a weekend in which Iowa's bubble burst and Rich Rodriguez's life just got a little more worse.

1. Who will win the Pac-10? You'd be better off throwing darts at a board. Like everyone out of Troy, did you count out USC after its beatdown at the hands of Oregon? So much for that. Stanford knocking off the Ducks may have ended the conference's hopes of a Pac-10 national champion, but it has created what should be the most compelling finish in the country with five teams that can win at least a share of the conference crown. Oregon and Arizona still control their own destiny, but if they slip up, it would open the door for a two-loss team (Stanford, Oregon State and USC). Yes, the Trojans are very much in the mix for an eighth straight conference crown that a week ago seemed an impossibility. It may not be easy to prognosticate, but it will at least be a helluva ride down the stretch.

2. Charlie Weis is in a bad, bad way. With his second loss to Navy in the last three years, a schedule that seemed tailor-made for a BCS run is suddenly looking like a schedule that could get Weis run out of Notre Dame. At 6-3 with Pitt, UConn and Stanford remaining, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see the Irish drop two of those final games. Despite the $18 million buyout, I would be stunned to see Weis return next season. If he loses to Pitt next weekend, he'll drop to 35-25 in his tenure -- the exact same record Bob Davies had when he was canned in 2001.

3. Iowa was exposed -- finally. The Hawkeyes have been living on the edge, escaping Michigan State and Indiana, but without Ricky Stanzi, for all his faults (including being 58th in passing efficiency), always seemed to will Iowa to a win. Without him, Iowa barely cobbled together 150 yards in the loss to Northwestern with freshman James Vandenberg at the controls. So what does he get for his first real start? A trip to the Horseshoe against Ohio State and the conference's best defense with the Big Ten's automatic BCS bid on the line. Kirk Ferentz may want to go ahead and get his travel agent on the phone to start booking rooms for the Outback Bowl.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Your Weekend Primer: Week 10 Picks & Predictions

Three things we'll see before Week 10 is in the books.

1. The Buckeyes will take a step closer to a game nobody outside of Ohio wants to see them in. Ohio State's destiny is in its own hands. With back-to-back games against Penn State and Iowa, OSU can either clinch a trip to the Rose Bowl or play its way out of a BCS game. The pressure is on Terrelle Pryor, who returns to his native Pennsylvania for the first time since spurning Penn State for The Sweater Vested One. Last season, Pryor tried to do too much against his home state team and cost the Buckeyes the game. While he's taken a ton of heat this season, I just see him delivering, partly Penn State hasn't beaten anyone of any significance and secnodly because I just think it would be great to see everyone up in arms if the Buckeyes play in another BCS bowl.

2. Alabama will punch its ticket to Atlanta. With a win over LSU, the Crimson Tide will clinch the SEC West and a shot at Florida for the conference title. The defining forces in this game are clearly the defenses, which makes finding a shred of offense that much more meaningful. 'Bama has struggled of late with two touchdowns in ths last 10 quarters and LSU is coming off its two best offensive games of the season ... but they were against Auburn (70th in total defense) and Tulane (98th). We've seen the Tide deliver in high-proile gamees, while the Tiger had 163 yards and three points against Florida. We know LSU will make a point of trying to stop Mark Ingram and the running game, meaning this could be the game where Julio Jones regains the spark of his freshman year as Greg McElroy tries to stretch the field.

3. Cincinnati will keep its perfect season alive. You know it's a lackluster weekend (outside of Ohio State-Penn State and LSU-Alabama), when the most marquee game ABC can throw on its 8 p.m. time slot is Cincinnati-UConn. It will be nice exposure for the Bearcats, and if you look at the Huskies, whose four losses are by a combined 13 points, this could be interesting. While Zach Collaros will get the start, Tony Pike has been cleared to play and expect him to get in and let it fly as Cincy gets ready for its stretch run against West Virginia, Illinois and Pitt. Of course, the big question is: would I rather sit thought this pumped-up rout or Hotel For Dogs? Not sure which would be worse.

Now, on to this week's picks:

No. 1 Florida vs. Vanderbilt: Gators
No. 2 Texas vs. UCF: Longhorns
No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 9 LSU: Crimson Tide
No. 4 Cincinnati vs. Connecticut: Bearcats
No. 6 TCU at San Diego State: Horned Frogs
No. 7 Oregon at Stanford: Ducks
No. 8 Iowa vs. Northwestern: Hawkeyes
No. 10 Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest: Yellow Jackets
No. 11 Penn State vs. No. 15 Ohio State: Buckeyes
No. 12 Southern Cal at Arizona State: Trojans
No. 13 Houston at Tulsa: Cougars
No. 14 Pittsburgh vs. Syracuse: Panthers
No. 16 Miami vs. Virginia: Hurricanes
No. 17 Utah vs. New Mexico: Utes
No. 18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State: Cyclones
No. 19 Notre Dame vs. Navy: Irish
No. 20 Oklahoma at Nebraska: Cornhuskers
No. 21 Arizona vs. Washington State: Wildcats
No. 23 California vs. Oregon State: Golden Bears
No. 24 Wisconsin at Indiana: Badgers
No. 25 BYU at Wyoming: Cougars

Last Week: 15-3
Overall: 129-42